FOMC Holds Rates Steady as Gold Hits New Highs — What Comes Next for BTC and ETH Flows?
• 6 min read • by Kelvin Jones
"FOMC Holds Rates Steady as Gold Breaks Records — What It Signals for BTC & ETH"
🧠 Executive Summary
Gold surged to fresh all‑time highs today as the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, reinforcing expectations of a liquidity‑friendly environment later this year.
Crypto markets, meanwhile, remain in a holding pattern: BTC is stuck in a 60‑day range with U.S. ETF outflows accelerating, while ETH flows mirror the same institutional hesitation.
The key question: Does gold’s breakout foreshadow a rotation back into BTC and ETH once the FOMC path becomes clearer?
🏦 FOMC Decision: Rates Steady, Liquidity Signals Mixed
The FOMC delivered a no‑surprise decision, holding rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets still price in a 25 bps cut with ~90% probability in the coming months.
Key takeaways:
- No immediate cut, but expectations remain firmly dovish
- USD continues to weaken, supporting non‑yielding assets
- Risk assets paused, waiting for Powell’s tone
- Liquidity conditions remain tight, but easing is expected
This environment historically benefits gold first, then crypto — with a lag.
🏦 Gold Hits New All‑Time Highs
Gold powered to new record levels today, driven by:
- Safe‑haven demand
- A weakening U.S. dollar
- Expectations of a lower‑rate environment
- Central bank accumulation
- Macro uncertainty around global policy paths
Gold’s breakout is not subtle — it’s a macro signal.
Spot prices hit fresh highs above $5,280–$5,345 depending on the contract.
This surge is happening while crypto remains flat, which is unusual given their shared sensitivity to liquidity.
🏦 BTC & ETH Flows: U.S. Outflows, Global Divergence
Bitcoin and Ethereum flows tell a very different story:
- BTC stuck in an $85K–$94K range for 60 days
- Record ETF outflows from U.S. issuers
- Coinbase premium negative, signaling U.S. selling pressure
- Europe and Asia neutral-to-positive, but not enough to offset U.S. outflows
ETH flows mirror BTC:
- Weak U.S. demand
- Low implied volatility
- No strong directional positioning
This divergence — gold ripping higher while BTC/ETH stagnate — is driven by U.S. institutional caution ahead of FOMC clarity.
🏦 What Happens Next? Liquidity Will Decide
Three catalysts will determine whether BTC and ETH break out of their ranges:
1. FOMC Forward Guidance
If Powell signals confidence in inflation progress, markets will price in cuts sooner — bullish for BTC/ETH.
2. ETF Flow Reversal
BTC cannot break above mid‑$90K without ETF inflows flipping positive.
ETH needs the same dynamic.
3. Gold’s Lead‑Lag Relationship
Historically:
- Gold moves first
- Crypto follows once liquidity improves
Gold’s breakout suggests liquidity expectations are shifting, even if crypto hasn’t reacted yet.
🏦 Bottom Line
Gold’s new highs are a macro alarm bell — signaling that markets expect easier policy ahead.
BTC and ETH are lagging, but the setup is classic: gold leads, crypto follows, once institutional flows turn.
For now, watch:
- ETF flows
- Coinbase premium
- Powell’s tone
- USD trajectory
The next move in crypto will be liquidity‑driven — and the groundwork is already forming.
Published January 28, 2026. Last updated January 28, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Why is gold hitting new highs during the FOMC meeting?
Gold is reacting to dollar weakness, safe‑haven demand, and expectations of a lower‑rate environment, even as the FOMC holds rates steady.
How do FOMC decisions impact Bitcoin and Ethereum flows?
Rate decisions influence liquidity conditions. A steady or lower‑rate environment tends to support BTC/ETH inflows, while uncertainty or hawkish tone can suppress U.S. institutional demand.